"As January goes, so goes the year", "Gld, UGL, CEF, AGQ, SLV, FXE, EWZ, EEM, VWO"

Whether people follow their normal pattern and pump money into stocks in January can be a sign of the market’s prospects for the coming weeks, and even for the entire year. If stocks rise in January, they often finish the year strongly. If stocks are weak during this normally propitious time, stocks tend to do poorly. January 2012 finished 4.3% up (for SP500) .. Let that thought be in the background while making the decisions this year ..


With Q4 2011 Earnings results and outlooks not so euphoric, the European issues are dictating the trends in the markets. US equities correlating to the tunes of Euro/USD rates. Gold also benefiting immensely from Dollar decline. 


Technically, the equity indexes are almost retesting the highs of 2011 July. So if nothing else, expect a brief pull back or consolidation for technical reasons. The short term overbought conditions and a splendid January performance might suggest some sluggishness in February.


Last week's (week over week) market Sectors Returns and Internals:

SP 500:  0.08%

• Volatility Index % change, VIX = -3.4%
• Short term bond rate (average of 3 year and 5 year) = 0.535%
• 10 year Treasury yield = 1.93%
• Small Cap (IWM): 1.88%
• Latin America (ILF): 1.12%
• Europe (IEV): 1.47%
• Emerging Markets (EEM): 2.37%
• 
  
• Commodities (DBC): 2.85%
• Long term Bonds (TLT): 0.94%
• US Dollar Index, 8 DMA: 79.75
• Gold, (GLD) change: 4.26%
•  
• Put/Call Ratio, total of equity/Index = 0.88
• Bull/Bear Ratio, Investors Intelligence survey = 
• NYSE (New Highs - New lows), 8 DMA = 192.28

Next Week's economic calendar:

• PCE Prices - 1/30
• Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence - 1/31
• ISM index, Auto sales - 2/1
• Unemployment rate - 2/3

"AAPL, BA, UGL, UCO, SLV, AGQ, GLD, EEM, ILF"

Technical indicators are turning bullish, but the oscillators are short term over bought. Lets see if this resolves with small correction or will it be sideways buying some time ..

4th quarter results (both earnings and revenues) are trailing behind the estimates, but the market is heading higher ..

Last week's (week over week) market Sectors Returns and Internals:

• SP 500:  2.04%
• Volatility Index % change, VIX = 4.92%
• Short term bond rate (average of 3 year and 5 year) = 0.645%
• 10 year Treasury yield = 2.05%
• Small Cap (IWM): 2.43%
• Latin America (ILF): 5.21%
• Europe (IEV): 5.42%
• Emerging Markets (EEM): 5.32%
• 
  
• Commodities (DBC): 0.44%
• Long term Bonds (TLT): -3.23%
• US Dollar Index, 8 DMA:80.64
• Gold, (GLD) change: 1.76%
•  
• Put/Call Ratio, total of equity/Index = 0.8
• Bull/Bear Ratio, Investors Intelligence survey = 
• NYSE (New Highs - New lows), 8 DMA = 138.46

Next Week's economic calendar:

• FOMC Rate decision - 1/25
• Durables Orders, New home sales - 1/26
• Q4 GDP, Michigan Sentiment - 1/27

"GLD and commodities struggling", "30 year mortgage rates making new lows"

US dollar popped through the resistance at 80 .. commodities and gold struggling ..

Last week's (week over week) market Sectors Returns and Internals:

• SP 500:  -2.83%
• Volatility Index % change, VIX = -7.92%
• Short term bond rate (average of 3 year and 5 year) = 0.58%
• 10 year Treasury yield = 1.86%
• Small Cap (IWM): -3.06%
• Latin America (ILF): -5.02%
• Europe (IEV): -6.4%
• Emerging Markets (EEM): -4.7%
• 
  
• Commodities (DBC): -4.1%
• Long term Bonds (TLT): 4.81%
• US Dollar Index, 8 DMA: 79.79
• Gold, (GLD) change: -6.71%
•  
• Put/Call Ratio, total of equity/Index =1.15
• Bull/Bear Ratio, Investors Intelligence survey = 
• NYSE (New Highs - New lows), 8 DMA =32.52

Next Week's economic calendar:

• Existing Home sales - 12/21
• GDP, Leading Indicators - 12/22
• Durable orders, New home sales - 12/23

"Euro Drama", "TLT, GLD, UGL, CEF, UUP", "FOMC Statement"

Global markets are still acting on the statements coming from Europe. Helicopter Ben did not please the US markets yesterday (12/13) with another round of Helicopter money-drop .. Traders were disappointed as the expectation was built in for another round of QE .. the retail sales did not create "shock & awe" response for November sales .. but the economy seems to be stabilizing in the US generally speaking ..

Last week's (week over week) market Sectors Returns and Internals:

• SP 500:  0.88%
• Volatility Index % change, VIX = -4.14%
• Short term bond rate (average of 3 year and 5 year) = 0.63%
• 10 year Treasury yield = 2.07%
• Small Cap (IWM): 1.41%
• Latin America (ILF): 1.09%
• Europe (IEV): 0.7%
• Emerging Markets (EEM): -1.01%
• 
  
• Commodities (DBC): -1.76%
• Long term Bonds (TLT): -1.63%
• US Dollar Index, 8 DMA: 78.62
• Gold, (GLD) change: -2.01%
•  
• Put/Call Ratio, total of equity/Index =1.2
• Bull/Bear Ratio, Investors Intelligence survey = 
• NYSE (New Highs - New lows), 8 DMA =74.17

Next Week's economic calendar:

• Retail sales, FOMC decision - 12/13
• PPI, Industrial Production - 12/15
• Core CPI - 12/16

"Euro to test 1.28?", "UUP, FXE, EWA, FXY, EWC, UGL, UCO, CEF, AGQ"

Some extreme measures (coordinated effort for easy access to US dollars ) from US/Euro/England/Canada/Japan central banks last week and reducing reserve requirement by China sent the markets soaring by 10% in Small caps, Emerging markets and in European markets. Did the central banks see  such a dire danger that they have to take a step as big as this.. May be they did or they are just following the earlier recommendation of Tim Geithner on providing a shock and awe response to the crisis .. Will it be enough to save Euro and for how long?

Fed's discount window is 0.75% for US banks, but the Fed is offering 0.5% for European banks . The cheaper US dollar for European banks should help with liquidity problems ..

Technically, US dollar might be seeing double top in the intermediate term and this drop in dollar is fueling the equities and the gold. Besides, the not so gloomy economic reports are indicating that the economy might be bottoming ... Unemployment report improved marginally to 8.6% ..

With very few US economic reports this week the markets might be inclined to head higher, but watch the developments in Europe closely though ..

Last week's (week over week) market Sectors Returns and Internals:

• SP 500:  7.39%
• Volatility Index % change, VIX = -20.16%
• Short term bond rate (average of 3 year and 5 year) = 0.655%
• 10 year Treasury yield = 2.05%
• Small Cap (IWM): 10.33%
• Latin America (ILF): 10.05%
• Europe (IEV): 10.42%
• Emerging Markets (EEM): 10.17%
• 
  
• Commodities (DBC): 4.28%
• Long term Bonds (TLT): -1.54%
• US Dollar Index, 8 DMA: 78.61
• Gold, (GLD) change: 3.93%
•  
• Put/Call Ratio, total of equity/Index = 0.98
• Bull/Bear Ratio, Investors Intelligence survey = 
• NYSE (New Highs - New lows), 8 DMA = -51.13

Next Week's economic calendar:

• ISM services - 12/5
• Wholesale Inventories - 12/8
• Trade Balance - 12/9
•